IN the wake of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG) 2024 national census, the country finds itself grappling with familiar challenges and new controversies, leaving policymakers and citizens alike questioning
the reliability of the data collected and the effectiveness of the process.
The 2024 census, eagerly anticipated as anopportunity to address the longstanding uncertainty surrounding PNG’s population figures, has instead become mired in controversy
and criticism. At the heart of the debate is a K17 million (approximately US$4.8 million) contract awarded to Max Industrials, a little-known Indian company, for the supply of electronic tablets meant to revolutionize the data collection process.
The contract, signed just a week before the census launch on June 17, 2024, immediately
raised eyebrows. Administrative Minister Richard Masere defended the deal, citing the high cost of the software and claiming that Max Industrials had invested its own funds to purchase 8,000 tablets, which were reportedly handed over to the National Statistical Office
(NSO) a month prior to the census.
However, the reality on the ground painted a different picture. As the census got underway,
reports emerged of enumerators lacking the promised tablets, forcing many to resort to traditional paper-based methods. This technological setback not only undermined the intended efficiency of the process but also cast doubt on the accuracy and real-time
nature of the data collection.
The controversy surrounding the tablet contract is emblematic of broader issues plaguing
PNG’s census efforts. Logistical challenges, which have long hampered data collection in
this geographically diverse nation, continued to pose significant obstacles. In the Autonomous Region of Bougainville, for instance, the census rollout was postponed by a week due to the late arrival of materials.
These delays and logistical hurdles are reminiscent of past census failures, most notably
the widely criticized 2011 effort. The 2024 census was meant to be a corrective measure,
addressing the data gap that has persisted for over two decades. The last census considered
credible was conducted in 2000, reporting a population of 5,190,786.
The lack of reliable population data has far-reaching implications for PNG’s development planning and international standing. Current population estimates vary wildly, with government figures suggesting around 9-11 million inhabitants, while a controversial United Nations report leaked in late 2023 estimated the population could be as high as
17 million.
This discrepancy has significant ramifications. As Maholopa Laveil, an economics
lecturer at the University of Papua New Guinea, points out, “We need a good census to
provide that socio-demographic data that government needs for policy planning. Police-
to-person ratios, doctor-to-person ratios.
All these other very important indicators... depend on accurate census data”.
The failure to conduct a successful census also impacts PNG’s relationship with international
partners and donors. Australia, which provides approximately AU$616 million in annual aid to PNG, has a vested interest in accurate demographic data to better tailor its assistance.
Critics argue that the 2024 census was underfunded from the start. The budget was reduced from 300 million kina to 150 million kina, almost half of what was spent on the failed 2011 census when adjusted for inflation. This financial constraint, coupled with capacity issues within the NSO, set the stage for the challenges that unfolded. The controversy surrounding the tablet contract has further eroded public trust in the process. Questions remain about how Max Industrials, with no apparent background in communications technology, secured such a significant contract. The lack of transparency in the procurement process has fueled speculation about potential corruption or mismanagement. As PNG looks to the future, the lessons from the 2024 census debacle must inform future efforts. Experts suggest several key areas for improvement:
1. Increased funding and long-term planning to ensure adequate resources for comprehensive data collection.
2. Enhanced transparency in procurement processes to rebuild public trust.
3. Investment in capacity building within the NSO to reduce reliance on external contractors.
4. Exploration of alternative data collection methods that account for PNG’s unique geographical challenges.
5. Greater collaboration with international partners to leverage expertise and resources.
The failure of the 2024 census to deliver on its promises underscores the urgent need for PNG to prioritize accurate demographic data collection. As the country continues to navigate its development challenges, the absence of reliable population figures remains a
significant obstacle. The road ahead requires a renewed commitment to transparency, efficiency, and accuracy in future census efforts to ensure that PNG can make informed decisions for its growing population.
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